“Everything That Moves Will Become Robotic”
Horsepower. Raw horsepower. After watching NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at NVIDIA’s GTC conference, I couldn’t help but think about it.
While all of the GTC conferences have centered around artificial intelligence since 2015, this year stood out. It’s all about power this week — computing power… and having the “horses” to accelerate even faster.
Three things to remember in times like these
The key takeaway for me is that the economy is too good to expect a rapid cooling off anytime soon. The faster disinflationary fall we’d been enjoying since the middle of 2023 has now trampolined on us and the data is coming in warmer and warmer. When people are working, people are spending. Almost everyone is working. That’s it. It doesn’t have to be more complicated than that.
Ed Thorp: Survival of the Fittest Mind
Are you incentivized to chase deals and put money to work, or is there time to follow curiosity and investigate thoroughly? What are you optimizing for: short-term returns or making good decisions?
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Should you confront your worries or try to banish them?
If you have a distressing thought, shoving it out of your mind will only work for so long. It will camp out in the unconscious, biding its time until it can emerge again, often through physical sensations, behaviors, emotions or dreams.
This Investor Raised Billions by Making Complicated Ideas Simple
Want to build influence with great ideas and simple writing? Look no further than Howard Marks. Most smart people use big words and plastic jargon to reinforce the barrier between themselves and “the common folk.” Howard, on the other hand, breaks down this barrier, and that’s why his ideas are so influential.
What is a Family Office and Why Does it Matter? by Ron Diamond
There are roughly 15,000 Family Offices around the globe which currently control approximately $10 trillion in assets. In comparison, there is only $6.5 trillion globally in the entire hedge fund world. But even more important than the size Family Offices currently are, we are about to experience the largest transfer of wealth in history.
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Why you, personally, should want a larger human population
Resources are not static. Historically, as we run out of a resource (whale oil, elephant tusks, seabird guano), we transition to a new technology based on a more abundant resource—and there are basically no major examples of catastrophic resource shortages in the industrial age.
Why Americans Suddenly Stopped Hanging Out
Something’s changed in the past few decades. After the 1970s, American dynamism declined. Americans moved less from place to place. They stopped showing up at their churches and temples. In the 1990s, the sociologist Robert Putnam recognized that America’s social metabolism was slowing down.
Ancient Greek antilogic is the craft of suspending judgment
In Syracuse, 2,500 years ago, there was a famous teacher of rhetoric named Corax. This new discipline was in high demand: mastery of persuasive speaking, it was hoped, led to fame and wealth.
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Scientists Destroy Illusion That Coin Toss Flips Are 50–50
“We can be quite sure there is a bias in coin flips after this data set,” Bartoš says.
What happens to the brain during consciousness-ending meditation?
There’s a meditative state described in ancient Buddhist scriptures that is hard to imagine because it is not something – but nothing. Referred to as nirodha-samāpatti, it roughly translates as ‘the cessation of thought and feeling’, and it is the highest meditative state possible in Theravada Buddhism
This vibrating diet pill may trick the stomach into feeling full
Device cuts food consumption in pigs by 40%, but some experts say it’s unclear whether it will work for humans
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What Will Happen In 2024
As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this time and inflation has come down. It seems that a “soft landing” is likely. That is good news for the innovation economy because healthy capital markets are a necessary support system.
Ice baths boost sex drive
A group of 17 male and 8 female Czech Army soldiers who participated in 2 min freezing cold water immersion, followed by light exercise for rewarming, reported improvements in sexual satisfaction, reduction in waist size, and reduction in anxiety, compared to controls.
Master of Change: How to Excel When Everything Is Changing – Including You
From social disruptions like economic recessions, pandemics, and new technologies to individual disruptions like getting married, career transitions, and becoming a parent, we undergo change and transformation—both good and bad—regularly. Change is not the exception, it’s the rule. Yet we endlessly fight it, often viewing it as a threat to our stability and sense of self.
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I first heard about Ibiza from a couple of my friends, who had heard from a few of our other friends who had been there recently. Word of mouth was kind of the only way you would have heard about it back then; it was not at all famous like it is now, at least not in the US. It was only a few years afterward that Ibiza was featured on a TV show called Wild on E, and started to be more on people’s radar.
The guys assured us that it was a great vacation spot for anyone who liked nightclubs and partying, so my friends Mike, Dan, and I decided we were willing to give it a shot. We booked some tickets, and flew out that year to spend a couple of weeks there. I didn't know what was in store for us - I had never been to Europe at all, let alone Ibiza.
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The Roman Empire Fallacy - by Frederik Gieschen
Have you ever looked at the US and thought 'man, this looks a lot like the late stage Roman Empire'? Powerful but divided. Rich but corrupt. Glamorous but dysfunctional. A source of marvelous technological achievements but unable to build things as it used to. Ruled by incompetent politicians, owned by a small elite, its masses trapped by unsustainable debt and distracting themselves with endless mind-numbing entertainment.
Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes by Morgan Housel
Every investment plan under the sun is, at best, an informed speculation of what may happen in the future, based on a systematic extrapolation from the known past. Same as Ever reverses the process, inviting us to identify the many things that never, ever change. With his usual elan, Morgan Housel presents a master class on optimizing risk, seizing opportunity, and living your best life.
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What I Am Reading:
Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results
Rationality is wasted if you don't know when to use it. What I've learned from watching real people in action is that, just like the angry CEO, they're often unaware circumstances are thinking for them. It's as if we expect the inner voice in our head to say, "STOP! THIS IS A MOMENT WHEN YOU NEED TO THINK!" And because we don't know we should be thinking, we cede control to our impulses. In the space between stimulus and response, one of two things can happen. You can consciously pause and apply reason to the situation. Or you can cede control and execute a default behavior.
Why a Failed Startup Might Be Good for Your Career After All
Go ahead and launch that venture. Even if it fails, the experience you gain will likely earn you a job that's more senior than those of your peers, says research by Paul Gompers.
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What I Am Reading:
How to Live an Asymmetric Life
Graham Weaver's narrative unfolds as a profound exploration of both investing and life, with a focus on the four essential principles that shape an asymmetric existence. Central to his message is the notion of writing one's own story – envisioning and pursuing dreams with unwavering determination. Living an asymmetric life, according to Weaver, means breaking free from fear and playing for the asymmetric upside in every aspect of existence
What I Am Watching:
The Most Misunderstood Concept in Physics
Entropy is the tendency of energy to disperse and create disorder, and is intricately linked to Earth's existence. This video vividly explains the vital role played by the sun, which provides Earth with an invaluable stream of high-quality low entropy energy that allows for structure and temperature variations, fostering the conditions for life to flourish. It's a captivating journey into the science behind our planet's sustainability.
What I Am Listening:
"The Formula" by Albert-László Barabási
Too often, accomplishment does not equal success. We did the work but didn't get the promotion; we played hard but weren't recognized; we had the idea but didn't get the credit. We convince ourselves that talent combined with a strong work ethic is the key to getting ahead, but also realize that combination often fails to yield results, without any deeper understanding as to why. Recognizing this striking disconnect, the author, along with a team of renowned researchers and some of the most advanced data-crunching systems on the planet, dedicated themselves to one goal: uncovering that ever-elusive link between performance and success.
A conversation with Renaissance Technologies CEO Peter Brown
In this special episode, Peter Brown, CEO of Renaissance Technologies, talks about his career and building the hedge fund company. He also recounts how the firm navigated market crises such as the “quant quake” and the Global Financial Crisis, and describes how computer models and algorithms have long played a role in Renaissance’s growth.
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What I Am Reading:
The Surprising Science of “Manifestation”
According to Oprah, manifesting is bringing something tangible into your life through attraction and belief. It encourages people to bring a goal to life by making vision boards, writing in manifestation journals, and speaking it into existence. Cue eye roll. However, as much as I hate to admit it, manifesting may have benefits—but not for the reasons self-help gurus say it does.
What I Am Watching:
DO IT TODAY: My philosophy for success, health, wealth, and happiness
Are you tired of putting things off and ready to make a change? Darius shares relatable anecdotes, practical tips, and actionable advice to help you overcome procrastination and start taking massive action. He shares strategies to boost productivity, improve well-being, and create a life filled with purpose and joy.
What I Am Listening:
Hexapodia L: Why Is Such a Good Economy Seen as Bad?
An episode on the puzzling disconnect between the U.S. economy's strong performance and the lackluster confidence of American consumers and voters. They explore various factors and they share insights from past economic experiences and discuss potential explanations for this discrepancy. Tune in to unravel the mystery of why many Americans are feeling down about an economy that, on paper, appears to be thriving.
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What I Am Reading:
The hottest new programming language? Biology
mRNA is just one example of a synthetic biology technology. As we speak, people around the world are bending biology to all sorts of precise, ambitious, and (at times) controversial ends. A quick list: resurrecting wooly mammoths, reversing disease, growing meat in a lab, editing genes, producing waste-free materials.
The Secret Tool of Elite Athletes for Achieving your Career Goals
The difference between those who succeed and those who fail in their goals is the transformation of identity. "The act of stepping into a new identity that you're unfamiliar with is a surprisingly effective brain shortcut to change. The human mind is wired to protect its identities, even in the face of irrefutable contradicting facts…
The case for reading all of your emails, according to Tim Cook
“I religiously start looking at customer notes every morning, starting around 5 am or so,” he says. It’s not uncommon for him to forward them to other Apple employees, the feedback having sparked an idea.
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What I Am Reading:
Scientists Reconstruct What You're Looking at by Enhancing Reflection in Your Eye
Researchers at the University of Maryland have developed an eerie technique that can reconstruct 3D images from the reflections in your eyes, by building on a neural network model called neural radiance fields (NeRF).
Astronomers detect largest cosmic explosion ever seen
The explosion is more than 10 times brighter than any recorded exploding star - known as a supernova.
The Impact of Stress on the Well-Being of Startup Founders
Startup Snapshot's insightful and provocative research sheds light on the big picture of founder mental health needs and solutions.
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What I Am Reading:
Octopus time
“We humans are forward-facing, gravity-bound plodders. Can the liquid motion of the octopus radicalise our ideas about time?”
For when someone says “I’ve seen this before, it didn’t work”
“If you’re a founder you’ve probably heard someone say “oh, I’ve seen this idea before - it didn’t work” or “isn’t this just like that other thing that person/company X tried?”
As a founder, I heard this dozens of times. It’s likely to come from investors, but you hear it from other founders, potential employees, advisors, customers, even family members. Like it or not, pattern matching is strong.”
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For every successful business I’ve started, or investment I’ve made, there have been multiple failures: businesses that never took off, investments that went to zero, and times when I was super gung-ho about something, only to have it end up in my Bad Idea Hall of Fame. Want to know more? Let’s take an honest trip down memory lane.
The Kickoff
The first one that comes to mind takes me back to my college years, when I was about 20. I was still in school at the time, and really into kickboxing, which was just becoming popular, with studios popping up everywhere. One day, I had a lightbulb moment for how I could monetize the kickboxing trend.
I bought the domain name Kickboxing.net with the plan of building an online directory of kickboxing studios. To fill out the front end of the site, I put up a bunch of content around the sport, but that was the easy part. The more labor-intensive work was creating the software that would pull information from a database about different locations. During my limited free time, I programmed the whole thing, spending probably about four months on it.
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What I Am Reading:
Deviate: The Science of Seeing Differently
Perception is the foundation of human experience, but few of us understand why we see what we do, much less how. By revealing the startling truths about the brain and its perceptions, Beau Lotto shows that the next big innovation is not a new technology: it is a new way of seeing.
In his first major book, Lotto draws on over two decades of pioneering research to explain that our brain didn't evolve to see the world accurately. It can't! Visually stunning, with entertaining illustrations and optical illusions throughout, and with clear and comprehensive explanations of the science behind how our perceptions operate, Deviate will revolutionize the way you see yourself, others and the world.
With this new understanding of how the brain functions, Deviate is not just an illuminating account of the neuroscience of thought, behavior, and creativity: it is a call to action, enlisting readers in their own journey of self-discovery.
Building JoonBug was a fascinating, engrossing experience, and there were all kinds of moving parts, from the tech side, to the finance side, to the social and entertainment aspects of working in nightlife. And peppered throughout those experiences were, of course, celebrity encounters! My team and I met and mingled with some of the true glitterati of that time, many of whom are still famous today. It was almost always a transient, happenstance kind of thing, a fun or exciting or just plain weird moment in time. These are just a few that stand out in my memory.
Biggest Fan
During my college years, but technically before JoonBug, I often went to a lounge called Spy Bar and tried to get in. It was the hotspot, the hardest place to get into, and the best place to be seen. I had a few hits, but mostly misses, trying to get past the velvet ropes. Spy Bar was a celebrity hotspot, so “ordinary” people had a tougher time getting in than they might have at a large mega club, where doormen were looking to pack the giant venue out with an eclectic crowd.
What I Am Reading:
The secret history of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and OpenAI
After three years, Elon Musk was ready to give up on the artificial intelligence research firm he helped found, OpenAI.
The nonprofit had launched in 2015 to great fanfare with backing from billionaire tech luminaries like Musk and Reid Hoffman, who had as a group pledged $1 billion. It had lured some of the top minds in the field to leave big tech companies and academia.
But in early 2018, Musk told Sam Altman, another OpenAI founder, that he believed the venture had fallen fatally behind Google, people familiar with the matter said.
And Musk proposed a possible solution: He would take control of OpenAI and run it himself.
Altman and OpenAI’s other founders rejected Musk’s proposal. Musk, in turn, walked away from the company — and reneged on a massive planned donation. The fallout from that conflict, culminating in the announcement of Musk’s departure on Feb 20, 2018, would shape the industry that’s changing the world, and the company at the heart of it.
The story of the first (and only) time I ever smoked pot.
Designated Driver
All through my high school years, I had avoided ever doing drugs of any kind. Maybe I drank a little here or there, but never drugs—basically because my parents scared the crap out of me with horror stories of people who did drugs and became homeless, or got addicted, or went crazy, or just straight up died.
For better or for worse, this approach worked for me, and I never felt the desire to go out on a limb and smoke pot with my friends (that was about the hardest stuff any of them did). I was the reliable designated driver type: clean, sober, and happy to keep it that way.
What I Am Reading:
The Art of the Good Life: 52 Surprising Shortcuts to Happiness, Wealth, and Success
The Art of the Good Life is a toolkit designed for practical living. Here you'll find fifty-two happiness hacks -- from guilt-free shunning of technology to gleefully paying your parking tickets -- that are certain to optimize your happiness. These tips may not guarantee you a good life, but they'll give you a better chance (and that's all any of us can ask for).
Crazy Train
Semper Augustus Client Letter 2022
PROFITLESS PROSPERITY; INVESTING IN FLATION; AND – BERKSHIRE: GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME
The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works
It’s such a simple idea. It’s the golden rule so to speak: You want to deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end. There is no ethos, in my opinion, that is better for any lawyer or any other person to have. By and large the people who have this ethos win in life and they don’t win just money, not just honors. They win the respect, the deserved trust of the people they deal with, and there is huge pleasure in life to be obtained from getting deserved trust.
What I Am Reading:
First Ever Recording of Dying Brain May Shed Light on Our Final Moments
“Scientists gain an accidental glimpse into an age-old question about what happens to the human brain as we die.”
After The Fact
“Everything has a price, and prices aren’t always clear. The price of exercise isn’t just the workout; it’s avoiding the post-workout urge to eat a ton of food. Same in finance. The price of building wealth isn’t just the trouble of earning money or dealing; it’s avoiding the post-income urge to spend what you’ve accumulated.”
